Czy średnie ceny mieszkań w Polsce wzrosną w 2026 wobec 2025 r.?

Minor upward adjustment reflecting the resilience of demand in the face of increased supply.

Discussions focus on the dual impact of strong demand (mortgage programs) and high supply, leading to a more balanced view.

Initial market reaction to NBP report; some analysts temper previous pessimistic outlooks as demand appears resilient despite supply.

Significant shift: NBP (National Bank of Poland) releases a report highlighting a significant imbalance in the housing market, indicating large supply in pipeline and potential for price stabilization/moderation. This is a data release from a key economic institution.

Continued moderate downward trend as supply factors gain prominence in market discourse.

Further downward pressure from anticipated high new supply.

New reports confirm strong construction activity; potential for future price moderation.

Market continues to integrate the new information regarding robust supply.

Some analysts lower price forecasts slightly, citing supply-demand rebalance.

Minor downward drift continues as potential for negotiation grows.

Further analysis of regional permit data supports the trend of increasing supply.

Market sentiment softens slightly as supply-side pressure becomes clearer.

Discussions among developers confirm potential for increased competition and buyer-side negotiations.

Continued adjustment to the new supply figures; some initial exuberance wanes.

Market begins to process the implications of increased supply, leading to a downward revision of price growth expectations.

Significant shift: New data from GUS (Central Statistical Office) shows a sharp increase in new residential construction permits and completed units. This points to rising supply, tempering earlier demand-driven price optimism.

Robust retail sales data signals strong consumer purchasing power.

Slight upward drift based on general positive economic news.

Analysts revise upward their 2026 price growth forecasts.

Continued strong demand indicators in the housing market.

Mortgage application volumes show significant increase following rate stability.

Momentum from the dovish central bank stance carries over, boosting optimism.

Market reacts positively to interest rate news, increasing confidence in sustained demand.

Significant shift: Central Bank holds interest rates steady and signals a dovish stance for the foreseeable future, making mortgages more attractive. This is a monetary policy decision impacting borrowing costs.

Further signs of robust demand and limited supply in key urban areas.

Positive momentum continues, supported by a healthy labor market.

Housing price indexes show consistent month-on-month growth.

Steady market conditions; no new major news.

Confidence in price increases growing with strong macro-economic data.

Minor upward adjustment based on quarterly GDP growth exceeding forecasts.

Market analysis points to sustained demand due to strong consumer confidence.

Positive trend holds, supported by robust employment figures.

Early uptake data for the 'First Home' program exceeds expectations, further bolstering demand outlook.

Continued positive sentiment following the policy announcement.

Initial positive market reaction to the new housing program, strengthening price growth expectations.

Significant shift: Government announces new 'First Home' program, expected to boost demand. This is a major policy change directly impacting affordability and demand.

Housing market data indicates continued strong buyer interest despite rising prices.

Steady market conditions continue, no new major influences.

Minor adjustment as inflation data shows signs of moderation, easing pressure on interest rates.

Further stabilization of the broader economic environment.

Positive outlook from mortgage lenders regarding future demand.

Confidence growing with more available data on housing starts.

Slightly positive adjustments based on regional market reports.

Gradual increase as economic indicators remain stable.

Housing market news indicates steady demand, supporting prices.

Minor upward trend continues, no major disruptive events.

Market sentiment slightly improves on robust wage growth data.

Continued gradual increase due to general market stability.

Slightly more positive outlook from expert panel discussions.

Minor positive trend continues.

Further data points suggest a slightly stronger baseline for housing demand.

Slow but steady improvement in market sentiment.

Small increase based on analysis of new construction starts, showing moderate growth.

Continued slow positive drift as general economic outlook stabilizes.

Minor upward adjustment due to early signs of economic recovery exceeding expectations.

Slight positive drift based on initial positive sentiment in real estate forums.

Nieznacznie bardziej prawdopodobny jest nominalny wzrost średnich cen transakcyjnych w 2026 r. wobec 2025 r. (56%). Ożywienie popytu wspiera ceny, lecz rosnąca podaż i negocjacje je hamują, a artykuły nie podają porównywalnych średnich rocznych NBP/GUS.