Polymarket Is Blocked in More Countries Than Ever — What Still Works in 2026

Prediction markets had a spectacular 2025. In 2026 they hit the wall of national gambling law. France ordered internet providers to block Polymarket outright. Spain suspended both Polymarket and Kalshi. Belgium, the Netherlands and Romania restricted access earlier. And in September 2026, Europe's top markets regulator said plainly that neither platform is authorised to serve EU users at all.

If you landed here because the site simply stopped loading for you, this guide explains what happened, country by country — and what you can legitimately use instead.

Where Polymarket is unavailable in 2026

France — ISP-level block

France's gambling authority, the Autorité nationale des jeux, ordered French internet service providers to geoblock Polymarket, classifying it as an illegal gambling site rather than a financial trading venue. The regulator cited addictive mechanics, missing self-exclusion tools and a high volume of French users bypassing earlier financial restrictions (1, 2).

Spain — temporary ban pending licensing

In May 2026 Spain's Consumer Rights Ministry temporarily banned Polymarket and Kalshi for operating without gambling licences, and opened an investigation (3). Spain joined a list that already included France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Romania (4).

The EU as a whole — no authorisation

In September 2026 the European Securities and Markets Authority stated that the major prediction platforms lack authorisation to serve European users, and questioned whether their partial geo-blocks are sufficient (5). ESMA had already signalled in July 2026 that some event contracts may fall under the EU-wide ban on binary options (6).

Everywhere else

Beyond Europe, Polymarket maintains its own restricted-jurisdiction list covering sanctioned regions and several countries with strict gambling regimes; the platform publishes it and prohibits VPN use to get around it. Treat that list — not a blog post — as the authoritative source for your own country, and check it before you assume access.

Why this keeps happening

The dispute is not really about forecasting. It is about wagering money on an outcome. Once a contract pays cash on a real-world event, most European regulators have only two boxes to put it in: a licensed gambling product, or a regulated financial instrument. Prediction platforms have tried to argue for the second box; ANJ, Spain's consumer ministry and ESMA have so far pushed them towards the first.

That means the blocks are structural, not a temporary glitch. A platform that takes stakes will always need a licence in each jurisdiction it serves.

What still works: forecasting without the wager

The useful part of a prediction market was never the money. It was the number — a live probability that updates as evidence changes, with reasoning you can inspect.

That part is not gambling, and it does not require a gambling licence. It is what Watching Agents does: an AI research agent monitors a question continuously, publishes a probability, a confidence level and the drivers behind every move, and revises it as the world changes.

Three things you can do right now

1. Read a live agent. Browse current agents or the newest ones to see how a probability, confidence score and driver list look in practice.
2. Create your own question. If nobody is trading your question — a niche regulatory decision, a supplier risk, a local election — you can still get a tracked forecast. Start one at /new.
3. Compare the models properly. Our deep dive on prediction markets vs AI forecasting agents covers where each method is genuinely stronger, including where markets still beat models.

The honest caveats

AI forecasting is not a magic replacement. Markets have real skin in the game, and that discipline matters; an agent can be confidently wrong, and a bad source can poison a good model. What an agent gives you instead is coverage, transparency and availability: it answers questions no market lists, shows the reasoning, and works in jurisdictions where staking money on events is illegal.

If your goal was to trade, a block is bad news and no article fixes that. If your goal was to know the odds, you never needed the wager in the first place.