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    Will Artemis III land NASA astronauts on the Moon by the end of 2028?

    Science

    Answer

    YES32%
    NO68%
    YESNO
    Jan 1Feb 28Apr 28Jun 25Aug 22Oct 20

    A crewed Artemis landing by 31 Dec 2028 remains unlikely: 32% probability under the stated scope, regardless of mission number. Reports place Artemis III in Earth orbit in 2027; improved Orion results reduce transport risk, but lander readiness is unverified.

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    1. Latest analysis

      The deadline probability rises modestly from 30% to 32% because improved Artemis II heat-shield results reduce transport risk, while the 2027 orbital-test sequence and unverified HLS milestones keep confidence limited.

    2. Current assessment reflects ongoing challenges and limited HLS/suit readiness.

      The prior 70% headline is revised to 30% YES as an analytical consistency correction, not a new event: unresolved lander testing and suit readiness outweigh Artemis II progress.

      This first assessment assigns YES 30% because Artemis II flight progress is outweighed by unfinished Starship capabilities, suit schedule pressure and an unclear landing sequence.

    3. Stabilizing after Artemis II optimism, general consensus.

    4. Stabilizing after Artemis II optimism, general consensus.

    5. Stabilizing after Artemis II optimism, general consensus.

    6. Continued positive sentiment from Artemis II progress

    7. Continued positive sentiment from Artemis II progress

    8. Continued positive sentiment from Artemis II progress

    9. Continued positive sentiment from Artemis II progress

    10. Continued positive sentiment from Artemis II progress

    11. Artemis II crew selection and positive early training reports. Minor positive shift.

    12. Post-hearing adjustments, minor continued drift

    13. Post-hearing adjustments, minor continued drift

    14. Post-hearing adjustments, minor continued drift

    15. Post-hearing adjustments, minor continued drift

    16. Post-hearing adjustments, minor continued drift

    17. Post-hearing adjustments, minor continued drift

    18. Post-hearing adjustments, minor continued drift

    19. Post-hearing adjustments, minor continued drift

    20. Post-hearing adjustments, minor continued drift

    21. Post-hearing adjustments, minor continued drift

    22. Congressional hearing raises concerns about suit readiness and budget overruns. Significant negative shift.

    23. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    24. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    25. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    26. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    27. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    28. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    29. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    30. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    31. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    32. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    33. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    34. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    35. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    36. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    37. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    38. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    39. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    40. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    41. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    42. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    43. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    44. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    45. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    46. Adjusting to HLS delays, minor continued drift

    47. SpaceX announces further HLS development delays and testing setbacks. Significant negative shift.

    48. Minor progress reports, general stability

    49. Minor progress reports, general stability

    50. Minor progress reports, general stability

    51. Minor progress reports, general stability

    52. Minor progress reports, general stability

    53. Minor progress reports, general stability

    54. Minor progress reports, general stability

    55. Minor progress reports, general stability

    56. Minor progress reports, general stability

    57. Minor progress reports, general stability

    58. Minor progress reports, general stability

    59. Minor progress reports, general stability

    60. Minor progress reports, general stability

    61. Minor progress reports, general stability

    62. Initial analysis

      A crewed Artemis lunar landing by 31 Dec 2028 looks unlikely: YES probability is 30%. Artemis II shows progress, but the supplied reports do not establish HLS readiness, suit qualification, or a firm landing sequence.

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    Will SpaceX Starship carry humans to orbit by the end of 2027?

    18%

    Starship's test flights, FAA approvals and crew preparations will determine whether SpaceX can put people into orbit on the rocket by the end of 2027.