Übersteigt Super E10 in Deutschland bis Ende 2026 1,80 €/l?

Gegenüber dem 13. Oktober bleibt JA bei 99 %, doch die Modellkonfidenz sinkt von 94 % auf 90 % wegen des fehlenden ADAC-/BAFA-Tagesbelegs zu; die neue Rabattkritik stützt lediglich weitere hohe Preise.

Current state: ADAC report on 2. Oktober 8 Uhr shows E10 at 2.098 €/l, confirming the threshold is crossed, although not a daily average.

Die JA-Einschätzung steigt gegenüber zuvor 65 % auf 99 %, weil der ADAC-Zeitpunktwert von 2,098 €/l die bisherige Gesamtquote als zu niedrig erscheinen lässt, auch wenn der Tagesnachweis fehlt.

Die Erstanalyse bewertet JA mit 98 % als sehr wahrscheinlich, weil E10 im Juli mit 2,12 €/l und am 2. Oktober um 8 Uhr mit 2,098 €/l gemeldet wurde; ein ausdrücklicher Tagesnachweis fehlt, und die Änderungswahrscheinlichkeit von 65 % betrifft weitere merkliche Preisbewegungen bis Jahresende, nicht die JA-Wahrscheinlichkeit.

Slow drift: Near-term forecasts from industry bodies reiterate the high probability of prices exceeding 1.80 €/l.

Slow drift: Latest data from price comparison services shows consistently high E10 prices across Germany.

Slow drift: Energy security concerns remain elevated due to international tensions.

Slow drift: Futures markets reflect continued expectation of high prices through 2026.

Slow drift: Monthly economic indicators for Germany show sustained but modest growth.

Slow drift: No unexpected geopolitical events causing price reductions.

Slow drift: ADAC issues a warning about consistently high fuel prices.

Slow drift: Industry analysts largely agree on the upward trajectory of fuel prices.

Slow drift: German government reiterates commitment to current carbon pricing mechanisms.

Slow drift: Latest IEA report indicates tightening global oil market balance.

Slow drift: Minor fluctuations in currency exchange rates, but overall trend supports higher import costs.

Slow drift: Reports of increasing shipping costs for crude oil and refined products.

Slow drift: Continued strong demand forecasts for the upcoming winter heating season.

Slow drift: Inventory levels remain within expected ranges, no immediate relief from supply side.

Slow drift: No major changes in regulatory or tax framework for fuels.

Slow drift: ADAC reports average daily E10 prices nearing significant thresholds.

Slow drift: Global economic outlook shows resilience, supporting energy demand.

Slow drift: Continued strong performance of major oil companies' stock, indicating investor confidence in high prices.

Slow drift: Analysis of refinery maintenance schedules suggests potential for temporary supply tightening.

Slow drift: Slight increase in seasonal demand expected.

Slow drift: Energy experts confirm likelihood of sustained high prices due to structural supply issues.

Slow drift: No significant policy changes or market shocks observed.

Slow drift: Persistent inflation in Germany keeps costs high for fuel distributors.

Slow drift: Continued high global oil demand. Minor adjustments to supply forecasts.

Slow drift: Further weakening of the Euro against the dollar.

Slow drift: ADAC releases monthly fuel price analysis, highlighting upward trend and potential for further increases.

Slow drift: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East elevate, adding a risk premium to oil prices.

Slow drift: Refiners report high utilization rates, indicating strong product demand.

Slow drift: Signs of strong summer travel demand in Europe emerging.

Slow drift: Major investment banks increase their probability assessments for sustained high fuel prices.

Slow drift: Weakening of the Euro relative to the US dollar continues to make dollar-denominated oil more expensive.

Slow drift: Continued high demand from emerging markets.

Slow drift: Analysts revise price targets upwards for 2024 and 2025.

Slow drift: Market reaction to OPEC+ decision, futures prices rally.

Significant shift: OPEC+ unexpectedly announces deeper production cuts, tightening global supply further than anticipated.

Slow drift: Continued strong performance of benchmark crude oil contracts.

Slow drift: Minor upward revision in global economic growth forecasts.

Slow drift: Refining capacity reports suggest tightening supply margins.

Slow drift: Inventories show marginal drawdowns, indicating steady demand.

Slow drift: Geopolitical stability concerns persist, keeping a floor under oil prices.

Slow drift: Weakening consumer spending power slightly offsets demand, but not enough to significantly impact price trend.

Slow drift: Energy agencies release updated demand growth predictions.

Slow drift: Reports of increasing transportation costs for refined products within Germany.

Slow drift: Further analysis on long-term implications of green energy transition on fossil fuel pricing.

Slow drift: Public discussion and industry forecasts incorporating the new carbon tax impact.

Significant shift: Announcement of new national carbon tax adjustments for fuels in Germany, effective next year, signalling upward price pressure.

Slow drift: Germany's energy minister warns about potential supply constraints.

Slow drift: EU sanctions discussions impacting energy market sentiment.

Slow drift: Persistent inflation rates in the Eurozone suggest higher operational costs for refineries.

Slow drift: Analysts' reports projecting sustained high crude prices.

Slow drift: Continued market volatility following geopolitical tensions.

Significant shift: Escalation of conflict in Eastern Europe leading to immediate concerns over global oil supply. Price futures jump.

Slow drift: Speculation about potential OPEC+ production cuts.

Slow drift: Minor increases in regional fuel demand ahead of holiday season.

Slow drift: Slight weakening of the Euro against the dollar, impacting import costs.

Slow drift: Continued modest rise in energy commodity indices.

Slow drift: Minor fluctuations in global oil demand forecasts.

JA ist nahezu sicher, aber formal noch nicht belegt. Der ADAC-Wert von 2,098 €/l am 2. Oktober um 8 Uhr liegt deutlich über 1,80 €/l, ist jedoch kein Tagesdurchschnitt.