Czy średnia cena Pb95 w Polsce przekroczy 6,50 zł/l do końca 2026?

Utrzymuję poprzednie 96% przy pewności 80%, ponieważ prognoza średniej ponad 7 zł/l i drogi Brent wspierają TAK, lecz ucięty odczyt nie pozwala potwierdzić rozstrzygnięcia.

Utrzymuję poprzednie 96% prawdopodobieństwa i 80% pewności modelu: prognoza e-petrol.pl oraz podwyżki hurtowe przemawiają za TAK, lecz limit 7,06 zł/l nie zastępuje brakującego odczytu średniej.

W pierwszej analizie oceniam prawdopodobieństwo TAK na 96% dzięki prognozie średniej powyżej 7 zł/l i wzrostom hurtowym, ale brak pełnego odczytu średniej nie pozwala uznać wyniku za rozstrzygnięty.

Small upward adjustment as the dollar firms.

No new significant events, drift towards current state.

The market has priced in the high-cost environment.

Final confirmation that Polish refinery is back to near-full capacity, but wholesale prices remain elevated.

Slightly weaker demand data from the US.

Renewed geopolitical tensions in a key oil-producing region.

Market sentiment slightly cools as traders take profits before the end of the month.

e-petrol.pl reports that limit prices at many stations now exceed 7.00 zł/l.

Better-than-expected economic data in the Eurozone.

OPEC+ reaffirms its commitment to production cuts through the end of the year.

Analysis of retail margins shows they are increasing, adding to price pressure.

Slight improvement in the PLN/USD exchange rate.

Refinery announces partial restart, but full capacity remains weeks away.

Data shows a persistent gap between Polish wholesale prices and European averages.

Confirmation that strategic fuel reserves will not be released at this time.

Minor technical correction in oil prices.

Speculation about potential government intervention to control prices increases, but no action is taken.

Winter demand forecasts are revised upwards due to colder weather predictions.

Updated timeline for refinery restart is less optimistic than initially hoped.

A slight increase in fuel imports provides minimal market relief.

Reports from e-petrol.pl show average prices climbing steadily, approaching the 6.50 zł mark in some regions.

The dollar strengthens further, increasing the cost of imported oil.

Brent crude continues its climb, compounding the domestic supply issue.

Some positive news about the refinery repair timeline causes a slight dip in panic.

Government announces it is looking into fuel import options, but acknowledges logistical challenges.

Retail stations begin passing on the higher wholesale costs to consumers.

SIGNIFICANT SHIFT: Major Polish refinery unexpectedly announces a prolonged shutdown for critical repairs, severely constraining domestic supply and causing wholesale prices to surge.

Escalation in a regional conflict raises concerns over shipping lanes.

Start of autumn refinery maintenance in Europe.

Renewed focus on the details of the EU green transition plan.

Profit-taking in the oil market leads to a minor price correction.

Weakening economic data from the US suggests potential for a stronger dollar.

IEA monthly report points to a tighter supply-demand balance than previously thought.

Wholesale fuel prices in Poland see a sharp one-day increase.

Inflation data for Poland comes in higher than anticipated.

Polish government confirms end-of-year expiration for certain energy price shields.

Crude prices rebound on a new hurricane forecast in the Gulf of Mexico.

Market digests the EU news; long-term effect debated.

SIGNIFICANT SHIFT: European Union announces a new package of subsidies for renewable energy and transport, creating expectations of lower long-term fossil fuel demand.

Logistical bottlenecks reported at major European ports.

Slight strengthening of the złoty provides minor relief.

Summer demand for fuel proves robust across Europe.

National Bank of Poland signals a hawkish stance on interest rates.

Stronger than expected economic growth data from China boosts demand outlook.

Reports of a potential temporary ceasefire in a conflict zone ease prices slightly.

European diesel inventories reported to be lower than average.

Polish fuel wholesalers begin raising prices.

Złoty weakens against the US dollar.

SIGNIFICANT SHIFT: OPEC+ announces deeper and longer-than-expected production cuts, causing a spike in crude oil prices.

Refinery maintenance season begins, tightening supply.

Upward revision of national inflation forecast.

Slight dip in Brent crude prices.

Increased demand forecasted for summer driving season.

Polish government hints at no new fuel tax shields.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East resurface.

Retail fuel margins show slight increase.

Minor correction in dollar exchange rate.

Slight increase in oil futures.

Osiągnięcie średniej Pb95 co najmniej 6,50 zł/l do końca 2026 r. jest bardzo prawdopodobne, lecz niepotwierdzone. Limity cen przekraczają 7 zł/l, a ropa i dolar wzmacniają presję, ale materiały nie podają pełnej średniej e-petrol.pl.