Answer
JA blijft waarschijnlijk: 75% kans dat de gemiddelde CBS/Kadaster-prijsindex in 2026 hoger ligt dan in 2025. De berichten tonen nog prijsstijging én afkoeling, maar bevatten geen maandreeks van deze index om het jaarresultaat te berekenen.
Latest analysis
Final assessment: Confidence solidified as more recent data confirms the general trend of price increases, despite some minor fluctuations. The velocity is high due to consistent demand and limited supply.
De JA-kans blijft 75% omdat nog positieve prijsontwikkeling naast afkoeling staat; het eerdere nieuwbouwargument is vervangen door aantoonbare krapte.
Deze eerste inschatting geeft JA 75% kans omdat de eerdere groeiverwachting niet wordt uitgesloten door recente stabilisatie, maar meer aanbod en ontbrekende officiële indexcijfers beperken de zekerheid.
Minor drift: Slight dip reflecting some expert caution, but high confidence overall.
Minor drift: Stabilizing around the current probability.
Minor drift: Small downward adjustment, but confidence continues to build.
Minor drift: General stability, no significant new developments.
Minor drift: Slight moderation in forecasts, but still very positive.
Minor drift: Consistent positive signals.
Minor drift: Renewed optimism, driven by persistent demand.
Minor drift: Steady climb as market adjusts to new information.
Minor drift: Minor rebound in probability as latest data continues to show upward pressure.
Minor drift: A slight decrease in probability but increase in confidence as more concrete Q1 2025 housing data becomes available.
Minor drift: Stabilizing at a high probability level.
Minor drift: Slowing momentum, but the core prediction remains strong.
Minor drift: Small correction in sentiment, but still largely positive.
Minor drift: Slight adjustment downwards as some analysts point to potential, albeit small, headwinds.
Minor drift: High confidence in rising prices given current market conditions.
Minor drift: Further strengthening of the probability.
Minor drift: Strong demand signals persist.
Minor drift: Steady progress as the market anticipates continued growth.
Minor drift: Confidence continues to rise as more data points reinforce the positive trend.
Minor drift: Market appears to have absorbed recent news, returning to positive trajectory.
Minor drift: Positive sentiment slowly rebuilding.
Minor drift: Gradual increase as market focuses on underlying demand.
Minor drift: Stabilization after initial reaction, some rebound as core demand remains strong.
Minor drift: Debate around the impact of limited new supply on overall price growth.
Minor drift: Some analysts moderate their forecasts slightly due to supply constraints.
Minor drift: Market processing the new construction data, slight downward adjustment.
Significant shift: Unexpectedly low new construction starts reported for Q1 2025, suggesting continued housing scarcity and potential for rapid price increases. However, a slight cooling off from previous high. The probability slightly decreases due to a re-evaluation of affordability and market capacity, but still stays high.
Minor drift: Further strengthening of the positive outlook.
Minor drift: General consensus points towards rising prices.
Minor drift: Market optimism remains high.
Minor drift: Continued strong market signals and positive economic data.
Minor drift: Steady upward trend as positive news consolidates.
Minor drift: Media and expert commentary largely positive on housing market outlook.
Minor drift: Positive reception of government forecast, market adjusting upwards.
Significant shift: Release of a major government economic forecast indicating stronger than expected GDP growth and low unemployment for 2025/2026, boosting consumer confidence and housing demand expectations. Mortgage rates stabilize.
Minor drift: Renewed positive sentiment in the housing market.
Minor drift: Gradual increase in optimism again.
Minor drift: Steady, slight upward movement as economic fundamentals remain strong.
Minor drift: Market finds a new equilibrium after the initial shock.
Minor drift: Stabilizing, with some regaining of confidence as initial panic subsides.
Minor drift: Slight recovery as some analysts suggest impact might be less severe.
Minor drift: Investors and buyers adopt a 'wait and see' approach.
Minor drift: General caution prevails in the market.
Minor drift: Slowing momentum due to interest rate concerns.
Minor drift: Continued discussion on impact of potential rate hikes, minor downward pressure.
Minor drift: Market reacts to rate hike fears, some initial uncertainty.
Significant shift: Announcement of potential ECB interest rate hikes earlier than anticipated, raising concerns about affordability and demand in the future. Experts warn of a cooling effect.
Minor drift: Consensus forming around continued price growth.
Minor drift: Steady state, market digesting recent news.
Minor drift: Slight increase as more economists weigh in, confirming the trend.
Minor drift: Media reports picking up on the positive Q3 data, fueling optimistic outlook.
Minor drift: Post-report analysis, general positive sentiment continues.
Significant shift: Publication of Q3 2024 housing market report showing stronger than expected price increases, leading to more optimistic projections for 2025/2026. Experts begin to revise forecasts upwards.
Minor drift: Slow movement as more economic forecasts start to emerge for 2025/2026.
Minor drift: General market sentiment slightly improving, but still uncertain.
Minor drift: Continued general market discussions, no major new data.
Initial analysis
JA blijft waarschijnlijk: 75% kans dat de gemiddelde CBS/Kadaster-prijsindex in 2026 hoger ligt dan in 2025. De berichten tonen nog prijsstijging én afkoeling, maar bevatten geen maandreeks van deze index om het jaarresultaat te berekenen.
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