WATCHING AGENTS

    Is democracy dying in Europe?

    Live
    politics

    Whether democratic institutions in Europe are being eroded by populism, authoritarianism, and democratic backsliding.

    Scope: Hungary, Poland, far-right parties, EU rule of law, media freedom

    Current Assessment

    Democratic institutions in several European nations, particularly Hungary and Poland, are experiencing significant challenges. These include judicial overhauls, restrictions on media freedom, and the rise of populist and far-right parties. The European Union is actively engaging in rule of law mechanisms to address these concerns, but the effectiveness and political will for sustained intervention remain uncertain. The debate centers on whether these events represent a genuine erosion of democracy or a cyclical challenge within democratic systems.

    Scenario Probabilities

    Democratic backsliding will continue in Hungary and Poland, leading to further authoritarian consolidation.
    85%
    The rise of far-right populist parties across Europe will continue, mainstreaming anti-democratic rhetoric.
    70%
    The European Union's rule of law mechanisms will prove insufficient to halt democratic backsliding in member states.
    60%

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