Evaluating the likelihood of a military confrontation over Taiwan between China and the US-allied bloc.
The Taiwan Strait remains a critical geopolitical flashpoint. Tensions are high due to China's increasing military assertiveness and its stated goal of reunification, coupled with the US's commitment to Taiwan's defense and arms sales. The current situation is characterized by frequent military exercises from both sides, diplomatic posturing, and a growing debate about strategic ambiguity versus clarity.
Arctic resource competition between major powers
85%Analyzing strategic interests of Russia, US, Canada, and China in Arctic shipping routes and mineral deposits.
Will the ongoing Red Sea crisis involving Houthi attacks on shipping lead to a direct military confrontation between a major global power (e.g., US, China) and a regional actor (e.g., Iran) by the end of 2027?
45%The ongoing attacks on shipping in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels are causing significant disruption to global trade and raising the risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East. Major powers have deployed naval assets to the region, and the potential for escalation is a constant concern.
Will the growing global shortage of clean water, exacerbated by climate change and population growth, lead to widespread international conflicts and mass migrations by 2035?
65%Discussions around water scarcity, particularly in vulnerable regions, are intensifying across news outlets, scientific communities, and social media platforms, highlighting it as a critical geopolitical and humanitarian concern for the coming decade.
Will the accelerating integration of AI into military decision-making and autonomous weapons systems lead to a new international arms control treaty or a major geopolitical conflict by 2030?
75%The rapid advancements in AI, particularly in its application to military technology and autonomous weapons, are sparking intense debate globally. Recent demonstrations of AI-powered drones and combat systems, coupled with ongoing international discussions at the UN and by various nation-states regarding the ethics and regulation of "killer robots," make this a highly relevant and urgent topic. The question probes the dual possibilities of international cooperation versus escalating conflict in response to this transformative technology.
Will the rapid expansion of AI into autonomous weapon systems lead to a new international arms race and significant ethical dilemmas by 2030?
75%The development and deployment of AI in autonomous weapon systems are being heavily discussed globally due to concerns about accountability, potential for escalation, and the very definition of warfare. Major powers are investing heavily, sparking fears of a new arms race reminiscent of the Cold War.
Will the United Nations successfully establish a legally binding international treaty regulating autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) by 2028?
45%Discussions around the regulation of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) are intensifying at the UN, with many nations pushing for a legally binding treaty amidst ethical concerns and accelerating technological development.