Stijgt de Euro95-adviesprijs in Nederland vóór eind 2026 boven €2,10/l?

Current state. The national daily average price already exceeds €2.10 per liter, making the predicted threshold already surpassed. The reported daily price of €2.732/l is €0.632 above the limit; a substantial change to this assessment is unlikely.

De JA-inschatting blijft 99%, maar het modelvertrouwen daalt van 95% naar 93% omdat €2,728–€2,732/l alleen als dagadviesprijs is onderbouwd en een volledige weekreeks ontbreekt.

Deze eerste analyse schat JA op 99% door de gemelde dagadviesprijzen van €2,728 en €2,732, met resterende onzekerheid over het formele weekgemiddelde.

SIGNIFICANT SHIFT: Recent daily national average price officially reported at €2.732/l, far exceeding the €2.10/l threshold. While the week average is not yet confirmed, the daily price makes the 'JA' outcome overwhelmingly probable, effectively inverting the original question's probability.

Drift: Average daily price reported close to €2.10/l.

Drift: No significant changes, market holds steady.

Drift: Public debate intensifies about high fuel prices.

Drift: Expert consensus now firmly points to crossing €2.10/l.

Drift: Daily average prices in major Dutch cities consistently above €2.00/l.

Drift: Price increases become more noticeable at the pump.

Drift: Minor supply chain constraints reported.

Drift: Continued strong demand for road fuels.

Drift: Reports of increasing transportation costs for fuel.

Drift: No major market shifts, continued slow rise.

Drift: General upward trend in energy costs.

Drift: Stable economic conditions in major economies.

Drift: Small increase in global travel, boosting fuel demand.

Drift: Analysts revise upwards their average price forecasts for 2026.

Drift: Slow increase in Dutch fuel prices at the pump.

Drift: General market sentiment remains bullish on oil.

Drift: No new significant market-moving events.

Drift: Minor fluctuations in commodity markets.

Drift: Steady demand in European markets.

Drift: Increased media attention on fuel price forecasts.

Drift: Continued upward trend in crude oil prices.

Drift: Euro slightly weakens against the dollar.

Drift: Concerns about potential oil embargoes grow.

Drift: Market continues to digest geopolitical news.

SIGNIFICANT SHIFT: Escalation of geopolitical tensions in a major oil-producing region, leading to fears of supply disruption and a surge in oil futures.

Drift: No major supply or demand shocks.

Drift: Stable global energy markets.

Drift: Slight increase in overall inflation.

Drift: Minor policy discussions on fuel taxation in neighboring countries.

Drift: Stable refinery operations globally.

Drift: Continued moderate upward pressure.

Drift: No new major market drivers.

Drift: Routine market activity.

Drift: Euro strengthens slightly against the dollar, partially offsetting price rises.

Drift: Minor increase in global demand.

Drift: Continued tight supply in the region.

Drift: Market adjusts to refinery outage news.

SIGNIFICANT SHIFT: Major refinery outage reported in Northwest Europe, leading to regional supply concerns and an immediate upward pressure on prices.

Drift: Slight increase in inflation concerns.

Drift: Stable geopolitical situation.

Drift: Steady growth in Dutch economy.

Drift: Minor adjustments in refinery output.

Drift: Continued moderate demand.

Drift: No significant news affecting fuel prices.

Drift: Stable global economic outlook.

Drift: Gradual increase in consumer spending reported.

Drift: Small increase in summer travel forecasts.

Drift: Routine market adjustments.

Drift: Minor fluctuations in Euro-dollar exchange rate.

Drift: Market reaction to OPEC+ cuts stabilizes.

SIGNIFICANT SHIFT: Unexpected OPEC+ production cuts announced, causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices. This directly impacts refined fuel costs.

Drift: Continued slow increase in demand.

Drift: No major market movements.

Drift: Seasonal increase in fuel demand.

Drift: Slight weakening of the Euro against the dollar.

Drift: Minor fluctuation in global oil prices.

JA is met 99% waarschijnlijk, maar het weekgemiddelde is nog niet rechtstreeks aangetoond. De gemelde dagadviesprijs van €2,732/l ligt €0,632 boven de grens; een wezenlijke verandering van deze beoordeling is onwaarschijnlijk.