Will the US Federal Reserve cut rates again before the end of 2026?

A Fed cut by December 31 remains unlikely, with an estimated 12% probability. The supplied reports favor a pause or further hikes, not the topic's premise of markets pricing more cuts; national labor and inflation evidence is incomplete.

Retain the previous 12% cut probability but lower confidence from 76% to 74% because the excerpts favor a pause or hikes without full-horizon cut pricing, and omit unsupported CRE and ECB arguments.

The cut probability remains 12% versus the previous forecast because further-tightening guidance and low claims still outweigh weak payroll growth and forecast core-inflation cooling.

This first forecast assigns a 12% probability of a year-end cut because reported official guidance and market expectations favor tightening, while low claims outweigh the limited evidence of softer hiring and prospective core-inflation relief.

The final data releases before the Fed's next meeting confirm the strength of the economy and the persistence of inflation.

The global economic environment shows signs of stabilizing, reducing the need for the Fed to ease policy.

The Fed's rhetoric becomes even more hawkish, with the Chair refusing to rule out another rate increase.

The market completely prices out any chance of a rate cut and starts to price in the possibility of another hike.

The inflation report for the month is also a disappointment, with prices re-accelerating.

The latest jobs report is a blockbuster, with a huge increase in payrolls and a drop in the unemployment rate.

The stock market gives back some of its recent gains as investors reassess the likelihood of a rate cut.

The Fed's communication becomes more unified, with all officials stressing the need to remain vigilant against inflation.

The geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe deteriorates, creating new uncertainty and potential inflation risks.

The market's enthusiasm for a rate cut fades as the reality of the Fed's data-dependent approach sets in.

The Fed's latest projections show that they expect inflation to remain above target for the next two years.

The labor market remains tight, with wage growth still running above the Fed's target.

The latest CPI report shows a welcome deceleration in inflation, but core inflation remains sticky.

Fed officials acknowledge the improved inflation outlook but remain cautious.

The dollar weakens, which could provide a boost to US exports and growth.

The bond market rallies on the news, with yields falling across the curve.

SIGNIFICANT SHIFT: A sharp drop in oil prices due to a breakthrough in OPEC negotiations reduces inflation fears, reviving hopes for a cut.

The market is now pricing in a small probability of another rate hike, a significant shift from a few months ago.

The latest Beige Book report from the Fed indicates that economic activity is expanding at a modest pace.

The global economic outlook improves slightly, reducing the need for the Fed to stimulate the economy.

The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the PCE deflator, remains elevated.

Another month of sticky inflation further solidifies the case against a rate cut.

Economic data continues to come in strong, with solid growth and a tight labor market.

The dot plot is revised again, with the median projection now showing no rate cuts for the year.

Fed officials deliver a series of hawkish speeches, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' message.

The market reprices rate expectations, with the probability of a cut falling sharply.

SIGNIFICANT SHIFT: A surprisingly high inflation report dashes hopes of a cut, as the Fed's focus shifts back to taming price pressures.

The latest Fed minutes show that the committee is more concerned about inflation than growth.

Inflation ticks up slightly, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance.

A surprisingly strong jobs report for the month eases concerns about a rapid economic downturn.

The Fed Chair, in a major speech, pushes back against market expectations of a rate cut.

Consumer confidence falls sharply, suggesting that households are becoming more pessimistic about the economy.

The yield curve inverts more deeply, a historical indicator of a looming recession.

US manufacturing data shows a contraction, further evidence of a slowing economy.

The US dollar strengthens significantly, which could have a disinflationary effect and support a rate cut.

Global growth forecasts are cut by the IMF, adding to the case for a more accommodative monetary policy.

Global growth forecasts are cut by the IMF, adding to the case for a more accommodative monetary policy.

SIGNIFICANT SHIFT: The European Central Bank unexpectedly cuts rates, increasing pressure on the Fed to follow suit.

Another month of moderate inflation keeps the Fed in a wait-and-see mode.

The minutes from the latest Fed meeting reveal a divided committee, with some members still favoring hikes.

Energy prices rise, adding a new wrinkle to the inflation outlook and making a cut less likely.

Fed officials acknowledge the cooling data but emphasize the need to see a sustained trend.

The labor market shows the first signs of cooling, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate.

Retail sales data shows a surprising drop, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending.

Economic growth forecasts are revised downwards, adding to the case for a potential rate cut.

Inflation data for the month comes in cooler than expected, keeping the possibility of a rate cut on the table.

The Fed provides liquidity to stabilize the banking sector, slightly reducing the immediate pressure for a rate cut.

SIGNIFICANT SHIFT: A major bank failure raises concerns about financial stability, increasing the probability of a cut to calm markets.

The Fed's dot plot is revised, signaling fewer rate cuts in the medium term.

Another month of solid jobs growth and sticky inflation further dampens rate cut expectations.

Markets begin to price out rate cuts for the year as economic data remains robust.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East introduce new inflation risks, making a rate cut less likely.

Stronger-than-expected labor market data reduces the urgency for the Fed to consider a cut.

Continued hawkish commentary from the Fed Chair reinforces the 'higher for longer' narrative.

Economic data shows a slight uptick in inflation, reducing the chances of a rate cut.

Fed officials' speeches reiterate a hawkish stance, dampening expectations for a near-term cut.

Minor data releases suggest continued economic resilience, slightly increasing the likelihood of a cut.

A Fed cut by December 31 remains unlikely, with an estimated 12% probability. The supplied reports favor a pause or further hikes, not the topic's premise of markets pricing more cuts; national labor and inflation evidence is incomplete.