Bude průměrná roční inflace v ČR za rok 2027 nižší než 2,5 %?

Awaiting new forecasts from the Czech Statistical Office and the CNB.

No new significant data, probability holds steady.

Market digests conflicting signals, leading to a period of stability.

The latest wage negotiations in a key sector point to continued high wage growth.

A more dovish tone from the European Central Bank helps sentiment.

The optimism is tempered by the continued stickiness of core inflation.

The market prices in a higher probability of a soft landing.

A slight uptick as a new report suggests food prices may fall more than expected.

Fears that inflation expectations have become unanchored.

The slowdown in demand is not yet reflected in price-setting behavior.

A leading indicator of economic activity turns negative.

Further signs of a cooling economy, with industrial production stagnating.

Hope that weaker demand will finally start to cool inflation.

Unexpectedly weak retail sales data suggests a slowdown in demand.

The CNB expresses concern about the government's fiscal stance.

Fiscal policy is now seen as a significant inflationary risk.

The government's budget for 2027 reveals higher-than-expected spending.

Concerns about the upcoming winter and its impact on energy demand.

A slight moderation in energy price futures provides a brief respite.

Analysts begin to doubt the likelihood of a significant economic slowdown.

Negative sentiment driven by a fresh wave of price increases in the service sector.

Return to the 40% level as the initial optimism from the CNB's move fades.

The effect of the strong koruna is offset by rising import prices.

Data on household consumption shows surprising resilience.

Mixed signals from the labor market, with wage growth still robust.

Koruna strengthens further on the back of the CNB's hawkish stance.

Concerns that the CNB's actions may be too little, too late.

Slight pullback as markets question the CNB's resolve.

Major CNB policy shift: Aggressive forward guidance on future rate hikes to anchor expectations.

Ripple effects of the price hike announcement are felt across the market.

A major utility company announces a significant price hike for 2027 contracts.

The 40% mark is breached as a consensus forms around higher-for-longer energy prices.

Deterioration in the outlook for key trading partners, particularly Germany.

The CNB's inflation report signals a more prolonged battle against inflation.

Forecasts for global growth in 2027 are revised downwards, but so is the inflation outlook.

Market sentiment sours as international oil prices begin to creep up.

Analysis of producer prices suggests broader inflationary pressures.

New data shows a surprising uptick in producer price inflation.

Koruna strengthens unexpectedly, providing some disinflationary pressure.

Market reprices expectations as initial details of the program seem less impactful.

Concerns about the cost of the program and its potential inflationary impact.

Skepticism emerges about the implementation and effectiveness of the program.

Optimism about the potential impact of the new energy policy.

Rebound after a government announcement on a new energy savings program.

The market reacts to hawkish comments from a CNB board member.

Data reveals that wage growth is outpacing productivity more than expected.

Negative revision of long-term inflation forecasts by a major bank.

Continued concerns over the pass-through from energy to core inflation.

Slight dip following a pessimistic report on domestic price pressures.

Shift in market sentiment as future energy contracts for 2027 tick up.

Analysts start to price in a higher likelihood of energy price hikes.

Concerns about the stickiness of inflation in non-energy components.

Positive inflation data from a neighboring country offers a glimmer of hope.

First signs of wage pressures in the service sector.

Growing worries about geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains.

Rebound as the Czech koruna shows signs of strengthening.

Minor adjustment as new data shows persistent core inflation.

Slight decrease due to early concerns about rising global energy prices.

Pravděpodobnost ANO, tedy průměrné inflace za rok 2027 pod 2,5 %, odhaduji na 40 %. Energie a jádrová inflace převažují nad slabší poptávkou; články však neobsahují úplnou prognózu ČSÚ ani ČNB pro rok 2027.