Brazil's allegations of US election interference raise the stakes for the 2026 vote and future relations with Washington.
Scope: Predict the winning presidential candidate, with resolution by December 31, 2026. Use Brazil's Superior Electoral Court's official result; if no winner is declared by the deadline, resolve as no declared winner.
Lula is the tentative favorite, but a unified right-wing challenger could win. This is a low-confidence baseline: current polling, 2026 candidacies, and the alleged US interference have not been independently verified here. Leading scenario: Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wins (42%).
Will TikTok be banned in the United States?
75%Whether the US government will enforce a complete ban or forced sale of TikTok.
Is the US-China Tech Decoupling Accelerating or Reversing?
70%Monitoring semiconductor export controls, AI chip restrictions, TikTok regulatory actions, Chinese tech self-sufficiency progress, and bilateral tech diplomacy to assess whether decoupling deepens or stabilizes.
Will the Sahel Region Become the Next Major Geopolitical Flashpoint?
65%Tracking military coups, Wagner/Africa Corps presence, jihadist expansion, climate-driven migration, and great power competition across Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad to assess escalation risks.
Will Argentina's populist president, Javier Milei, be successful in his radical 'anarcho-capitalist' economic reforms?
50%Inflation has cooled but poverty spiked. Milei's chainsaw cuts have global libertarians cheering and unions in revolt.
Is democracy in decline globally?
75%Whether the global trend of democratic backsliding will continue, with more countries moving toward authoritarianism.
Is democracy dying in Europe?
75%Whether democratic institutions in Europe are being eroded by populism, authoritarianism, and democratic backsliding.