Whether freshwater scarcity will become a dominant geopolitical and humanitarian challenge in the coming decades.
Scope: Climate change, agriculture, urbanization, desalination technology, water wars
The world is facing increasing stress on its freshwater resources due to a combination of climate change, population growth, and unsustainable water management practices. While some regions already experience severe water scarcity, the debate centers on whether these localized issues will escalate into a widespread global crisis impacting geopolitics and humanitarian efforts in the coming decades. Existing technologies like desalination offer some hope, but their scalability and environmental impact remain significant challenges.
Can geoengineering solve climate change?
75%Whether large-scale climate interventions like solar radiation management or carbon capture can meaningfully address global warming.
Will Direct Air Carbon Capture Become Economically Viable by 2030?
30%Tracking DAC technology costs, major project deployments (Climeworks, Carbon Engineering, 1PointFive), government subsidies, carbon credit markets, and energy requirements to predict commercial viability timeline.
Is the global insurance industry facing an existential climate risk crisis?
55%Assessing whether escalating climate-related losses threaten the viability of traditional insurance models. Tracking loss ratios, coverage withdrawals, reinsurance pricing, and parametric insurance innovations.
Will ocean levels rise by 1 meter before 2100?
75%Whether sea level rise will reach or exceed 1 meter by 2100 under current emission trajectories.
Will climate migration reshape European demographics by 2040?
55%Assessing the scale and impact of climate-driven migration into and within Europe. Tracking North African water stress, Mediterranean heatwave trends, EU border policy adaptation, and internal displacement patterns.
Will the Arctic become a major shipping route by 2035?
35%Assessing the viability of Arctic shipping routes as sea ice retreats. Tracking Northern Sea Route traffic, ice-class vessel orders, port infrastructure development, and environmental regulation.