Whether sea level rise will reach or exceed 1 meter by 2100 under current emission trajectories.
Scope: Climate science, ice sheet dynamics, emissions projections, coastal adaptation
Current scientific consensus, largely reflected in IPCC reports, suggests that global mean sea level will continue to rise throughout the 21st century. The extent of this rise is highly dependent on future greenhouse gas emissions and the response of ice sheets, particularly the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. While a rise of 1 meter by 2100 is within the range of possible outcomes under high emission scenarios, there is still uncertainty regarding the exact magnitude and acceleration of this rise.
Can geoengineering solve climate change?
75%Whether large-scale climate interventions like solar radiation management or carbon capture can meaningfully address global warming.
Will Direct Air Carbon Capture Become Economically Viable by 2030?
30%Tracking DAC technology costs, major project deployments (Climeworks, Carbon Engineering, 1PointFive), government subsidies, carbon credit markets, and energy requirements to predict commercial viability timeline.
Is the global insurance industry facing an existential climate risk crisis?
55%Assessing whether escalating climate-related losses threaten the viability of traditional insurance models. Tracking loss ratios, coverage withdrawals, reinsurance pricing, and parametric insurance innovations.
Are we entering a global water crisis?
75%Whether freshwater scarcity will become a dominant geopolitical and humanitarian challenge in the coming decades.
Will climate migration reshape European demographics by 2040?
55%Assessing the scale and impact of climate-driven migration into and within Europe. Tracking North African water stress, Mediterranean heatwave trends, EU border policy adaptation, and internal displacement patterns.
Will the Arctic become a major shipping route by 2035?
35%Assessing the viability of Arctic shipping routes as sea ice retreats. Tracking Northern Sea Route traffic, ice-class vessel orders, port infrastructure development, and environmental regulation.