Whether large-scale climate interventions like solar radiation management or carbon capture can meaningfully address global warming.
Scope: Solar radiation management, carbon capture, stratospheric aerosol injection, governance, risks
Geoengineering, encompassing technologies like Solar Radiation Management (SRM) and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), is increasingly being discussed as a potential set of tools to address climate change. While CDR focuses on removing existing CO2 from the atmosphere, SRM aims to reflect sunlight back into space, thereby cooling the Earth. The current state is characterized by limited deployment, ongoing research, significant ethical and governance debates, and a lack of international consensus on its viability and deployment.
Will Direct Air Carbon Capture Become Economically Viable by 2030?
30%Tracking DAC technology costs, major project deployments (Climeworks, Carbon Engineering, 1PointFive), government subsidies, carbon credit markets, and energy requirements to predict commercial viability timeline.
Is the global insurance industry facing an existential climate risk crisis?
55%Assessing whether escalating climate-related losses threaten the viability of traditional insurance models. Tracking loss ratios, coverage withdrawals, reinsurance pricing, and parametric insurance innovations.
Are we entering a global water crisis?
75%Whether freshwater scarcity will become a dominant geopolitical and humanitarian challenge in the coming decades.
Will ocean levels rise by 1 meter before 2100?
75%Whether sea level rise will reach or exceed 1 meter by 2100 under current emission trajectories.
Will climate migration reshape European demographics by 2040?
55%Assessing the scale and impact of climate-driven migration into and within Europe. Tracking North African water stress, Mediterranean heatwave trends, EU border policy adaptation, and internal displacement patterns.
Will the Arctic become a major shipping route by 2035?
35%Assessing the viability of Arctic shipping routes as sea ice retreats. Tracking Northern Sea Route traffic, ice-class vessel orders, port infrastructure development, and environmental regulation.